Crisis risk measurements – trade with credit default swaps against measurements of the capital trade dynamics

Autori

  • Mariya Georgieva Paskaleva South West University Neofit Rilsky

Parole chiave:

credit default swap, capital markets, financial crisis, correlation, Granger Causality Test, Logit model

Abstract

This study represents the increasing significance of credit default swaps for European capital markets, namely Germany, France, Belgium, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Greece, Bulgaria and Romania. The period of analysis is between 2003- 2016 years. After developing a theoretical and empirical framework to model the relationship between credit default swap market and capital market, we apply an empirical research which uses logistic regression. Our dataset assesses the ability of CDS to predict financial crisis at stock markets.  Regarding sovereign credit default swaps as reflection of credit risk, we find them to be a significant indicator explaining the periods proceeding financial crises, especially to developed capital markets.

Biografia autore

Mariya Georgieva Paskaleva, South West University Neofit Rilsky

Finance and Accounting, PhD student

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Pubblicato

2017-06-30

Come citare

Paskaleva, M. G. (2017). Crisis risk measurements – trade with credit default swaps against measurements of the capital trade dynamics. International Journal of Contemporary Economics and Administrative Sciences, 7(1-2), 81–113. Recuperato da http://ijceas.com/index.php/ijceas/article/view/154

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Articles